"UFC 109" Results and Review

It was a bit of an unlucky night for my picks, but I stayed above .500 and scored with another main event pick. So it wasn't a complete disaster by any means. My predictions record now stands at 153-87 (%63.8) and 20-6 (%76.9) in main events. [Photo Props: Dave Mendel, Sherdog.com]

Speaking of disasters, the buzz around the Internet is that Tim Hague got robbed something fierce last night, which is frustrating both personally, because I picked him to win, and also from the perspective of a Canadian MMA fan. My analysis was pretty on-point in that fight, too, with Hague swarming all over an exhausted Chris Tuchscherer for the entire third round... more on that later.

UFC 109 QUICK RESULTS:

***Randy Couture def. Mark Coleman by Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Rd. 2 [Submission Of The Night (60k)]
---Chael Sonnen def. Nate Marquardt by Unanimous Decision [Fight Of The Night (60k Each)]
---Paulo Thiago def. Mike Swick by Submission (D'arce Choke), Rd. 2
***Demian Maia def. Dan Miller by Unanimous Decision
***Matt Serra def. Frank Trigg by TKO (Strikes), Rd 1 [Knock-Out Of The Night (60k)]
***Mac Danzig def. Justin Buchholz by Unanimous Decision
---Melvin Guillard def. Ronnys Torres by Unanimous Decision
***Rob Emerson def. Phillipe Nover by Unanimous Decision
***Phil Davis def. Brian Stann by Unanimous decision
---Chris Tuchscherer def. Tim Hague by Majority Decision
---Joey Beltran def. Rolles Gracie via TKO, Rd. 2

*** Correct Pick ---Incorrect Pick

Overall Score: 6-5 (%54.5)

Sunday Morning Thoughts

- Randy Couture looked solid last night, using his superior boxing and footwork to great effect. That being said, Mark Coleman came out with a garbage gameplan that saw him attempt zero takedowns, and looked every bit his age throughout the match. This win keeps Randy relevant at 205lbs., but it will be difficult for the UFC to justify giving Couture a title shot for beating 2010's Mark Coleman. There are also a handful of LHW contenders who would likely handle Randy fairly easily, so it will be difficult to match Couture with another fringe contender that he can beat to justify such a shot.

- If there was ever a UFC fight to point to when arguing for Japanese scoring system, under which a fight is scored based on who came closer to finishing, Chael Sonnen's victory over Nate Marquardt might be just that fight. Sonnen was, by his own admission, briefly knocked out by a knee in the first round, cut wide open in the second, and nearly choked out in the third. After the fight, Sonnen looked like he had played shot-for-shot with a rhinoceros. Marquardt, meanwhile, looked like he had just engaged in an unusually spirited pillow fight. Don't get me wrong, under the "ten-point must system," of which I am quite supportive, Sonnen clearly won this fight with his wrestling dominance and constant activity. I'm just saying he got whipped pretty good along the way, and almost certainly would have lost in the fourth round if there was one. My analysis was strong here, though. I noted that wrestling was Sonnen's only path to victory and predicted a third-round sub for Marquardt, which nearly came through. According to Dana, Sonnen will fight the winner of Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort, for the title.

-Of my five missed picks, this is the one that I feel worst about. I waffled a good deal during in my research for the fight, and felt all along that Paulo Thiago was getting better in recent fights, while Mike Swick was getting worse. Admittedly, this was the best technical striking we've ever seen from Paulo "Braz-Cop" (my new name for the Bazilian special forces operative), but his improvement was highly predictable given the strides he has made of late. Mike Swick was a heavy favourite, but I shouldn't have put so much stock in his track-record of success, which is receding now into distant memory. Side-note: Thiago's d'arce choke finish was an absolute beauty to behold and it is truly criminal that Couture's perfunctory RNC was awarded "Submission of the Night."

- Demian Maia showcased improved stand-up in outpointing Dan Miller on the feet, but it was not so impressive that I would ever advise Maia to continue fighting that way. Let's not forget that Miller is primarily a wrestler and a BJJ guy in his own right. If Maia attempts to strike with, say, the winner of Michael Bisping vs. Wanderlei Silva, he will get savagely owned without a doubt. Still, improvement is improvement and you have to hand it to Maia for rounding out his game.

- The mighty midget got the job done last night, as Matt Serra transitioned fluidly from punishing Frank Trigg to the body to knocking him out upstairs with his patented over-hand right. Trigg, who must have collaborated with Mark Coleman on their "genius" takedown-free gameplans, should not, and likely will not, fight in the octagon ever again. Trigg protested the stoppage, but it was actually slightly late, if anything.

- Mac Danzig did exactly what he needed to do in handily dispatching Justin Buchholz, who should now work on his game in regional shows. That said, Danzig did not look like a world-beater tonight and there are very few legit lightweight contenders that I personally think he can hang with.

- Melvin Guillard upset my pick and even cost me money by beating Ronnys Torres over three rounds. Clearly, I put too much stock in Torres' positive buzz and foolishly overlooked the benefits of "The Young Assassin's" revamped training at Team Jackson in New Mexico. Indeed, this was the most methodical Guillard we have ever seen and his grappling was leaps-and-bounds ahead of what we've all come to expect. I would still say that an elite submissions guy beats Guillard more often than not, but it looks like it will take and MMA fighter on a higher level than Torres to get the job done. That said, Ronnys turned in an enjoyable performance and will certainly be back in the octagon soon enough.

- Rob Emerson survived to fight another day, and Phillipe Nover is officially an over-hyped washout. Any questions?

- Phil Davis successfully utilized his vastly superior wrestling to expose Brian Stann as the mockery to the sport of MMA that he is. That might have sounded harsh, okay it was a bit harsh, but the fact is that Stann, who has skated by as a one-dimensional striker for way to long, definitely had this beatdown coming. Davis still has lots of room to grow and needs to add something called "finishing ability" to his arsenal. Once he does, we could be looking at a quality mixed martial artist.

- There's nothing more frustrating in the predictions game than being one-hundred percent right and still being wrong. As far as I am aware, every credible MMA website that provided live results scored the fight in favour of Alberta's Tim Hague and most gave Hague a 10-8 final round when he straight-up pummeled an exhausted Chris Tuchscherer for five full minutes. The crown booed the majority decision heartily. If there's any justice in this world, the UFC will bring Hague back for a fourth fight despite his 1-2 octagon record.

- The less said here the better. Rolles Gracie looked slow, uncoordinated, and incompetent on the feet. By the second round, Rolles was sucking wind so bad that I thought he might tap out from being winded. Joey Beltran took this fight on less than two-weeks notice and efficiently exposed Gracie as an embarrassment to his lineage. I don't expect "The Mexicutioner" to go very far in the UFC, but I'll happily watch him fight any day over Rolles.

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"Strikeforce: Miami" Review

Picks Results: 5-1 (%83.3)

Main Event:
*** Diaz def. Zaromskis by TKO, Rd. 1 (4:38)
Main Card:
*** Santos def. Coenen by TKO, Rd. 3 (3:40)
*** Walker def. Nagy by TKO, Rd. 3 (2:17)
--- Lawler def. Manhoef by KO, Rd. 1 (3:33)
*** Lashley def. Sims by TKO, Rd. 1 (1:11)
Undercard:
*** Hieron def. Riggs by Unanimous Decision

*** Correct Picks --- Incorrect Picks

Review

Most hardcore MMA will easily find fault with Strikeforce: Miami's second-rate presentation and shoddy matchmaking, but very few would claim they were not entertained. It was also a decent night for my predictions. I went 5-1 with a correct main event pick, bringing my overall score to 147-82 (%64.2), and 19-6 (%76.0) in main events.

Detailed thoughts follow:


Nick Diaz def. Marius Zaromskis by TKO, Rd. 1 (4:38); Wins Vacant Strikeforce Welterweight Title

Straight-up: if you even dare to suggest that this fight was anything but awesome, you are not a fan of MMA. You may not even have a pulse. You should get that checked.

In the very first minute, Nick Diaz (21-7) and Marius Zaromskis (13-4) let loose with simultaneous flurries, which was enough in itself to make the fight memorable. Ultimately, Nick did precisely what most prognosticator's assumed he would, landing at a rate many professional boxers would envy. He scored his TKO a full three rounds earlier than I predicted, so, at this point, I would say that we can all stop talking about the cumulative power in Diaz' strikes. He hits hard and he hits a lot, that's it.

Beyond that, I was impressed with Diaz' tactical use of knees along the fence. He realized early that a slug-fest might not go his way and immediately changed his approach. That allowed him to regain his bearings, while also providing an opportunity to dole out some punishment. Nick also demonstrated his famous resilience by surviving a scare around the three-minute mark when Zaromskis dropped Diaz on the canvas with a left hook.

When Diaz returned to his feet, the air seemingly left Zaromskis' sails almost instantly, while Diaz poured on the aggression. That demonstrates a couple of key points. The first is that Zaromskis is not used to having golden-opportunities slip away and was unsure of how to proceed once one did. It also suggests that Diaz' triathlon-level cardio conditioning allows him the luxury of fighting full-bore for an entire round, which is both rare and incredibly advantageous.

The fall-out from this match will also be fascinatingly to observe.

For his next fight, Marius Zaromskis returns to Japan to defend his welterweight belt at DREAM.13 (March, 22nd). He will face against submissions specialist Kiyoshi Tamura (32-13-3). Unofficially, I like Zaromskis to win, but, in any case, from now on the linear DREAM 170lb. champion will have to be considered inferior to the linear holder Strikeforce welterweight belt. Unless another fight occurs in which the DREAM representative prevails, that is. This fact would be less troubling for DREAM if there weren't already an apparent pattern in place in which Japan-based fighters come to North America only to get slaughtered. It happened with Ryo Chonan (16-10) and Akihiro Gono (31-15-7) in the UFC, for example, and it happened twice tonight if you include Manhoef's loss.

As for Nick Diaz, this is definitely the biggest win of his Strikeforce career. At the same time, it is extremely dangerous to heap too much praise on the new Strikeforce Welterweight Champion. Lead Showtime play-by-play announcer, Mauro Ranallo, actually had the outlandish gall to call Diaz a potential pound4pound top-ten fighter, which is simply infuriating because Zaromskis, who had Diaz hurt, was not even ranked in the WW top-ten going in. Diaz certainly displayed a lot of skill and courage at Strikeforce: Miami and, perhaps deserves a WW top-ten spot, but that's it. His next fight is likely to be against Jay Hieron (19-4), who defeated Joe Riggs on the undercard by unanimous decision, but Hieron is not ranked in the WW top-10 either and will do little to advance Diaz' legacy.

After that fight, assuming Diaz wins, Strikeforce will find that its welterweight cupboards are utterly and completely bare. The UFC currently controls each of the world's top-12 welterweights and a fight between Diaz and Jake Shields (24-4-1) is not an option since the Nick and Jake are training partners and longtime friends.

Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos defeats Maroles Coenen To Defende Her Strikeforce Lightweight Championship.

Maybe I just got caught up in the excellent hype-job done by the Stikeforce broadcast team, but as this match began I was starting to doubt that Cristian Santos (9-1) would have as easy of a time in this fight as I had predicted. I even started to think that Marloes Coenen (17-4)’s superior striking technique and significant grappling advantage might be enough to secure the win, especially if she could tire Santos out.

As it turned out, though, “Cyborg’s” strength advantage made the difference once again. That was clearly on display throughout, but it was not the whole story: her punches were noticeably crisper, she utilized stellar takedown defense, demonstrated a granite chin, scored several particularly crushing takedowns , and also exhibited a veteran's patience in picking her shots from guard. On top of all that, “Cyborg’s” gas tank seemed nearly limitless.

If Cristiane Santos, who is still fairly young at just twenty-four years old, can continue to improve her technique, and combines that with her obvious physical advantages, she can likely retain her Strikeforce Women's Lightweight Title (145lbs.) for a long, long time.

Again, the much trickier question for Strikeforce down the road could be, who fights Santos next? Aside from Erin Toughill (10-2-1), who has been signed by Strikeforce, but has yet to make her debut, there is no woman out there who poses a credible threat to Cyborg's reign.

Herschel Walker defeats Greg Nagy by TKO, Rd. 3

From the very first stiff jab to his eventual third-round TKO from back-mount, Heisman Trophy winner, Herschel Walker (1-0) took the fight to Greg Nagy (1-2). Walker's leg kicks were crisp, his transitions were of sufficient speed, and his sprawl was nothing short of textbook. It was a particularly impressive performance for a guy making his MMA debut.

That’s not to say that Walker’s performance was flawless. There were instances throughout the fight in which he had achieved dominant position, including several opportunities from of both full-mount and back-mount, but Walker was unable to capitalize until late in the third. The ability to finish can, of course, come with time, but, at forty-seven years old, time is the one thing that Walker doesn’t have a lot of.

In his post-fight interview Walker was very humble and credited his coaches and training partners for the victory. He also implied that he is interested in fighting until his body no longer holds up, which, judging by his ridiculously ripped physique, could be some time away yet. Walker will never be a champion for Strikeforce, but he doesn't need to be. He can be a key draw for Strikeforce if matched properly with intriguing opponents and also lends credibility to the organization and the sport of MMA with his wide-spread appeal in the wider sporting world.

Robbie Lawler defeats Melvin Manhoef by KO, Rd. 1

Melvin Manhoef (24-7-1) looked more patient and better-prepared than we have ever seen him. He came out with purpose and was picking Robbie Lawler (17-5) apart, especially with those devastating leg kicks. To say Manhoef looked absolutely terrifying for the first three-minutes-and-thirty-seconds of this fight would be a gross understatement. Then, as if realizing he could not take any more abuse, Robbie Lawler poked his head out of its protective shell just long enough to launch that counter right hook that switched off Manhoef's lights.

Lawler certainly scored an impressive finish, but the performance was nothing to hang his hat on. He connected on only three strikes the entire round and was limping noticeably both during the fight and afterward. It will be difficult for Strikeforce to match Lawler with the winner of Dan Henderson vs. Jake Shields until he turns in at least one more-complete performance-- perhaps he can face the loser of that fight.

As for Manhoef, it appears that years of fighting like a half-crazed wolverine have finally taken a toll on his synapses. Sure, anyone can get caught, but Manhoef, who was out cold from one hook, is no spring chicken at nearly thirty-four years old and should probably at least begin considering a new line of work.

Bobby Lashley defeats Wes Sims by TKO, Rd. 1

It was over pretty quick, Wes Sims (22-13-1) would say too soon, but it feels more like this fight didn’t happen at all.

We learned nothing about Bobby Lashley (5-0)’s developing skill-set by watching him maul Sims for just over a minute. I realize that Strikeforce wants to protect Lashley and that he wants to learn the game at his own pace. That’s all fine and good, but if they’re going to continually set him up with punching bags as opponents, can't they please spare us all the insult of watching him do so on a major show?

Ultimate Fight Night 20: Review

I went a below-average 2-2 (%50) on the night, bringing my overall prediction total to 142-81(%63.7) and 18-6 (%75) in main events. I willingly admit that I underestimated Amir Sodollah and heartily congratulate him on his decisive victory over "Bad" Brad Blackburn. That said, I stubbornly retain some lingering concerns about the young Iranian.

Besides that, my analysis was very strong, if I don't say so. This was so even in my other defeat in which Evan Dunham taught Efrain Escudero a valuable lesson in the dangers of the deadliest sin. Speaking of Pride, though, please allow me to take a minute to boast about my betting night. I was nearly flawless with tidy wins on solo Rory MacDonald and Evan Dunham bets, plus a three fight parlay of Gerald Harris, Aaron Simpson, and Gray Maynard to win. My only loss was on Jay Silva to beat Chris Leben, but that was more of a flyer bet, anyway.

My detailed thoughts on the main card and full-card results can be found below.

Gray Maynard Def. Nick Diaz By Split-Decision (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)

It turned out closer than I expected, but Gray Maynard pulled out another decision to retain his perfect UFC record, and padded my already-solid main event predictions record in the process. So, I can't complain too much about the stress he put me through in the process. The real difference from my analysis was that I thought Maynard would mix in some of his vaunted wrestling skills, but he chose, instead, to demonstrate his massively improved striking. Gray's head movement was reminiscent of his trainer, Randy Couture, and his hands were clearly packing K.O. power with sniper precision. That combination would have been enough to beat most fighters decisively, but Nate Diaz has certain advantages in a pure striking match, like his ridiculous reach, stupendous durability, and years of boxing training. Nonetheless, Maynard was able to neutralize those advantages en route to a richly deserved decision win. I just thought he might have made things easier on himself by mixing in a slam or two. Of course, then he would have ended up in Nate "No Hands Triangle" Diaz' guard and risked being submitted, so I can understand "The Bully's" reasoning.

The other story here is that the UFC's absolute worst nightmare came %100 true. Gray Maynard won in fairly pedestrian style and without adding a much-needed dramatic finish to his highlight reel. That makes Gray pretty difficult to market against the lightweight champion, BJ Penn. Meanwhile, the only other viable option, Frankie "The Answer" Edgar, has a glaring loss to Maynard on his record. Perhaps, Zuffa can woo Shinya Aoki from DREAM/Strikeforce to face "The Prodigy," though that seems pretty unlikely. Failing all else, they can either move BJ up for a showcase fight at welterweight, or try to convince a welterweight contender to drop down for an immediate title shot, Josh Koscheck perhaps?

Then again, the UFC could also just give Maynard the title fight, anyway. It's not as if fans won't always tune in to see "The Prodigy" fight, even against an opponent with limited hype. There should really be no problem marketing everyone's favourite demented blood-lick'er, especially if the match goes down on at the much-anticipated Abu Dhabi card (UFC 112, April 10th), as is rumoured.

Evan Dunham Def. Efrain Escudero By Armbar, Rd. 3

Sometimes it just doesn't pay to be right. Well, actually it did pay big-time via my cash bet on Evan Dunham, which I recommended in my predictions post. What I mean, though, is that knowing Dunham was being pathetically underrated by oddsmakers was, not quite enough for me to pick him straight-up against Efrain Escudero, Mexico's favourite TUF 8 winner. It sure was close, though. Going into the third round, each undefeated youngster had one round in the bank, at least in my books. Then when Efrain opened the third with a guillotine attempt it looked like he might pull it out, after all. That is, until Dunham escaped the choke, scored a trip to initiate a scramble, then transitioned flawlessly from a triangle to an armbar that finished the match.

Unfortunately, Escudero clearly did suffer from never having "learned how to lose." He left the octagon to seek immediate medical attention due to a severely injured arm that did not need to be damaged at all. It was only Efrain's refusal to tap that caused the potentially serious injury. One sincerely hopes the damage won't affect his career too negatively, but, if nothing else, this fight's aftermath should stand as an example to undefeated up-and-comers of the dangers inherent in not tapping. The clothing line may be right that "Jesus Didn't Tap," but when you're helplessly caught....you probably should just go ahead and do it, anyway.


Aaron Simpson Def. Tom Lawlor By Split-Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

In another gratifying case of personal vindication for this writer, though this time without the bitter taint of failure, Tom "The Filthy Mauler" Lawlor put up much more of a fight against Aaron "The A-Train" Simpson than just about anyone else predicted he would. To listen to the numerous pro-Simpson doomsayers go on about how Lawlor was going to get completely blasted, you would think "Filthy" wasn't a talented, physically massive, and essentially undefeated middleweight. Well, guess what, he proved he was all those things at UFN 20. Not only did Lawlor put up one a heck fight in defeat, he used better striking than anyone, besides possibly his striking coach, had ever seen from him to utterly dominate the first round. Not only that, but in the mind of one judge and the hearts of many of the assembled fans, he even can lay claim to having "won" the fight.

Ultimately, though, Aaron "The A-Train" Simpson proved his many yay-sayers right. What he really showed was nearly unbelievable durability and incredible mental toughness en route to winning the last two rounds on two cards to secure the split-decision win. Lawlor vs. Simpson was easily the fight of the year in my book, despite the fact that we're only about two weeks in, of course.

I can not wait until either one of these guys fights next. In fact, why not have them fight each other again? I have certainly heard worse ideas in my time.


Amir Sodollah Def. Brad Blackburn by Unanimous Decision

The main card did not start well for my picks, but, my analysis was not as far off as the unanimous 30-27 scores for Amir Sodollah would suggest. For one thing, Brad Blackburn did put up a very respectable fight for the first two rounds. In the first round, Blackburn had his moments and only lost it so clearly due to the knock down Sodollah scored late. In my admittedly biased opinion, Blackburn could even have been awarded the second frame. "Bad" Brad also survived a third-round mauling, just as I predicted he would if the fight went the distance. By failing to finish Blackburn when he had him clearly rocked with a flying knee, Sodollah demonstrated once again that he may lack finishing ability.

On the other hand, I promised to give Amir credit if he proved me wrong twice in a row, so here it comes: his leg kicks looked fast and powerful once again, and Mike Goldberg was right to point out how impressive it is when Sodollah uses his push-kicks, essentially a leg jab, as a serious offensive weapon. Ultimately, Amir Sodollah proved once again that high-quality, eight-point, muay thai striking will almost always trump straight-up boxing. Despite my lingering concerns with regard to Amir's finishing ability, he should feel great about his performance. At 3-1, it is clear now that Sodollah deserves his place in the octagon.


Quick Results

Main Event
***Gray Maynard Def. Nate Diaz By Split Decision

Main Card
---Evan Dunham Def. Efrain Escudero By Armbar, Rd. 3
***Aaron Simpson Def. Tom Lawlor By Split Decision
---Amir Sodollah Def. Brad Blackburn By Unanimous Decision

Undercard
Chris Leben Def. Jay Silva By Unanimous Decision
Rick Story Def. Jesse Lennox By Unanimous Decision
(***)Rory MacDonald Def. Mike Guymon By Armbar, Rd. 1
Nik Lentz vs. Thiago Tavares Ruled a Majority Draw (Lame)
Rafael dos Anjos Def. Kyle Bradley By Unanimous Decision
Gerald Harris Def. John Salter By TKO, Rd. 3
Nick Catone Def. Jesse Forbes By Split Decision

*** Correct Picks --- Incorrect Picks () = Unofficial Pick