Saturday, November 21, 2009

UFC 106: Results

I went a measly 3-6 (%33.3) with one draw (which won't be counted) tonight. My record now stands at 118-71 (%62.4) and 14-5 (%73.7) in main events.

It was only the second time I've ever had a sub-.500 outing and, percentage-wise, it was my worst showing ever.Suffice it to say, there were a few places that I zigged when I should have zagged.


---Forrest Griffin def. Tito Ortiz by Split Decision
***Josh Koscheck def. Anthony Johnson via Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Rd. 2
***Antonio Rogerio Nogueira def. Luis Cane via TKO, Rd. 1
---Amir Sadollah def. Phil Baroni via Unanimous Decision
---Paulo Thiago def. Jacob Volkmann via Unanimous Decision
---Ben Saunders def. Marcus Davis via KO, Rd. 1
---Kendall Grove def. Jake Rosholt via Submission (triangle choke), Rd. 1
---Brian Foster def. Brock Larson via TKO (strikes), Rd. 2
Fabricio Camoes vs. Caol Uno declared a majority draw after three rounds
***George Sotiropoulos defeats Jason Dent via Submission (armbar), Rd. 2

--- Incorrect Pick *** Correct Pick

UFC 106 started out well when Sotiropoulos easily handled Dent, but that fight had lock written all over it so I can't take much credit there.

I was right that Fabricio Camoes had Caol Uno's number, but unfortunately he hit Uno with an illegal up kick and lost a point. That resulted in a majority draw, which cost Camoes the win and me a few percentage points.

I don't know what Brock Larson was thinking about, but the fact that he was deducted two points in the first round showed that his head clearly wasn't in the octagon. I knew Foster had a puncher's chance, but virtually nobody thought he would dominate Larson like he did.

Kendall Grove and Ben Saunders both pulled of upset victories on SpikeTV and that's when my card busted wide open. Grove was, as I predicted, being handled fairly easily by Jake Rosholt before "Da Spyda" locked in a fight-ending triangle choke, that is. Saunders looked much more impressive as he thoroughly dominated Marcus Davis for the duration of their one-round bout. "Killa B" was just too big for Davis to handle. His superior size gave him tons of leverage and made it all too easy for him to find a home for his knees in the clinch.

Jacob Volkmann put up a very good fight and even threatened with a late submission against the BJJ-ace, Paulo Thiago, but ultimately it was Thiago's striking and superior conditioning that won him the fight. I admit I massively underestimated Thiago's stand-up-- my bad.

I got way too cute with my Phil Baroni call, I can see that now. Some of those uppercuts he landed in the first were pretty solid, but, as usual, he gassed right out after the first few minutes. I thought he would have fought a but smarter for a change, but, in hindsight, I don't really know why I gave him so much credit. You have to admit though, Amir's stand-up has never looked even close to that sharp before.

I nailed the assessment that "Lil' Nog's" technical boxing would trump Luis Cane's brawling, so that was nice. I didn't think Nogueira would take him out in the first round, though. Light heavyweights: consider yourselves put on notice.

I'm particularly proud of my Josh Koscheck call, perhaps the lone bright spot for me on the whole card. A lot of people were predicting a KO win for "Rumble" in this one, but I saw through the hype enough to know that "Kos" had a better all around game. It showed.

As for the main event, my pick of a dominant win for Ortiz was based on the assumption that Tito was in great shape, which anyone who saw him gas in the third round could clearly tell was not the case. Tito had released some training videos that seemed to indicate he was in top form, but those sorts of things can obviously be deceiving. As I predicted, Tito did do a fair amount of damage from Forrest's guard and, had he not faded-out so horribly in the final round, he might have secured the TKO I predicted right on schedule. In the end though, it was my bad for assuming Tito would be back to his old self before I'd seen it with my own eyes.

I know you can't win them all, but I feel like I should virtually always fare better than one-in-three. I had some bad breaks, which I can't control, but I also made some half-baked calls, which I'll do my best to learn from. I've only been at this for a little over a year and, even though my overall record is fairly respectable, I have a long way to go before I feel I'll reach my fight-picking potential.

Whatever you do, don't write me off just yet.

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